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Lucidera's Demise
Written by Evangelos   
Monday, 29 June 2009

Much has been written over the last week about the recent demise of Lucidera, one of the on-demand BI pioneers.  Some writers saw it as a general sign of the current economic times during which venture funding has become harder to raise. Others saw it as a direct consequence of the unsustainability of Software as a Service models.  In my opinion, none of these are the reasons for Lucidera’s failure.

Lucidera started as a well-capitalized startup.  The company had raiased over $20M in 2 rounds of funding from very well-respected investors with long experience in funding successful IT startups.  In addition to its strong founding team it had also attracted top management talent, most recently Rob Reid who last year became the company’s CEO.  Lucidera benefited from the strong overall interest (by customers, investors, and executives) in on-demand software and its application to business intelligence. So, what went wrong?

My suspicion is that Lucidera made two wrong choices which led to its predicament.  The first wrong choice was around its platform.  To expedite its time to market, Lucidera started building its on-demand BI platform by modifying an existing platform that had been developed by Broadbase.  While at the time this might have appeared as a brilliant idea, my sense is that the company couldn’t make things work out the way it was expecting.  Perhaps the platform was not scaling to the expected levels.  Or modifying it to make it into a modern multi-tenant SaaS platform was taking longer and costing more than expected.  The wrong choice of platform could also have another financial consequence: operating the platform was more expensive than originally projected.  This means that to properly scale and process the data sets the customers wanted to analyze, more hardware than the team had originally planned was necessary, implying that the company was burning through more money than it had anticipated.  My suspicion is that Lucidera’s management team may have decided to focus on specific analytic applications in order to finesse some of the platform issues.  Unfortunately, the second mistake was due to the applications chosen to be built on top of the platform.  While I’m sure these applications were selected in order to address a genuine market need, I wouldn’t be surprised if their selection was also due to the underlying platform’s shortcomings.  However, I think that customers were not willing to pay as much for these applications as the company may have expected.  If this is true, then it would imply that the company was burning through cash faster than it had anticipated.

Its burn rate caused Lucidera to seek a new round of funding in the fall.  It is true that last fall was the absolute worse time for companies to be raising money.  However, the timing alone was not the reason Lucidera failed to raise money.  While last fall venture investors had turned mostly inward and were scrutinizing potential investment opportunities much more than usual, financings did get done, especially in companies that were performing well.  For example, Pivotlink, one of my portfolio companies and a direct competitor to Lucidera, closed its most recent round in January.  Good Data, another Lucidera competitor was funded about the same time.  I’m sure the investors that were considering Lucidera had difficulty seeing how the company’s business model around the analytic applications it had developed was going to succeed, particularly during these economic times. As a result, investors didn't want to invest additional money since they couldn't see their way to a return. 

Some also say that investors may be having second thoughts about funding SaaS companies today because on-demand software models are not capital-efficient.  They claim that the reason for this inefficiency is because SaaS vendors must invest upfront for the creation of the infrastructure (including the data center) on top of which the on-demand solution is running.  While it is true that SaaS companies require more upfront capital to set up their infrastructures than their on-premise counterparts, more recently, as a result of the lessons that have been learned from the SaaS pioneers, and the use of open source software and commodity hardware, the capital requirements of SaaS companies have decreased significantly making on-demand software companies as capital efficient (if not more) as on-premise ones.  Moreover, judging from the financing activity of the last 6 months one can safely conclude that SaaS may be the only software models funded by venture investors.

Will Lucidera’s demise have a long-term impact on on-demand BI?  I don’t think so.  Lucidera’s customers may spend some time thinking whether to sign up with another SaaS BI vendor, even though both Pivotlink and Good Data have announced programs for taking over Lucidera customers.  However, demand for SaaS BI solutions is growing.  I can state this not only because of Pivotlink’s and Host Analytics (another of my SaaS BI portfolio companies) success, but also because of discussions with large on-premise BI vendors all of which are readying SaaS offerings.  In fact, SAP/Business Objects will introduce a new offering this fall.  The demand is growing because corporations of any size and industry are starting to realize the attraction of on-demand BI’s value proposition (time to value, strong and quick ROI, small set of preconditions).  You don’t need to: (a) have your data already in the cloud, (b) work with only small data sets, or (c) try to address simple problems before you can effectively utilize on-demand BI, as some people claimed.  As with on-premise BI approaches, you need to start with the right vendor that is adequately capitalized, has the right platform and the right business model that allow it to grow profitably and quickly become a self-sustaining company.



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Last Updated ( Monday, 29 June 2009 )
 
New Analytic Applications for the New Data Sets
Written by Evangelos   
Wednesday, 20 May 2009

On a daily basis Internet publishers (e.g., Yahoo, MTV) and Internet applications such as e-commerce sites (e.g., Amazon, eBay), social networks (e.g., Facebook, MySpace, Tweeter), and ad networks (e.g., VideoEgg, Valueclick) generate very large data sets with new types of data.  For example, a site like MTV.com may generate 90TB of raw data per year which, after being augmented with demographic and geotagging data, can easily balloon to 700TB.  A recent post on the management of large data states that eBay has a 6.5PB data warehouse and Facebook a 2.5PB data warehouse.  Facebook is capturing 15TB of data daily.  This new, Internet-based data consists of various types of logs, user generated content, etc.  The size of these data sets dwarfs the corporate data, e.g., sales transactions, collected and stored in more “traditional” data warehouses used by the non-internet members of the Global 2000.  These “traditional” data warehouses typically store 600GB-1TB of data.  Most mid-size companies, i.e., companies that do about $400M in annual sales, operate even smaller data warehouses that rarely cross the 300-400GB level.  The existing analytic tools and applications, e.g., Business Objects, or Cognos, were not developed with the intent of operating on anything that resembles the king-size, Internet-based data sets.

During the last couple of years we’ve seen significant innovation in the area of the area of data management, first with the introduction of data warehouse appliances by companies such as Netezza, Datallegro, Greenplum (that were based on relational database technology) and more recently with the introduction of appliances such as Aster’s and Vertica’s that are using column-based databases.  The latter two are starting to be adopted for the management of the Internet-based data.  We have also seen the development of systems such as Hadoop that provides a framework which applications can use to work on very large data sets.  These products are maturing quickly and their use is significantly reducing the cost of managing very large data sets.

While companies are making good progress on managing these very large data sets, their ability to effectively and efficiently analyze these sets is lagging.  Companies like Google, eBay and Yahoo are using internally-developed frameworks (e.g., Google’s MapReduce) and home-grown routines to analyze the data they generate because, in most cases, the existing analysis products they throw at them can’t scale to operate on these sets, or don’t have the necessary functionality to address the questions that must be answered through these analyses.  Sample questions that e-marketers (who represent only one of the constituencies that need to analyze this data) are trying to answer include:

  1. What should my keyword-bidding strategy be (which keywords, what price) for each of Google, Yahoo, and MSN?  How should I allocate my budget between SEM and SEO?
  2. Which ad networks are giving me the best performance?
  3. Across which channels and at what percentages should I allocate my marketing budget to reduce lead acquisition costs and increase conversion rates?

Over the past few months I’ve been meeting with several startups that are developing new analytic applications to address such questions, and am particularly excited about the data analysis innovations they are working on.  Because more money is shifting online and the importance of the decisions made using this new data is rapidly increasing, this area will attract strong investor interest and has the potential of producing several winners.



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Last Updated ( Monday, 29 June 2009 )
 
Data Warehousing in the Cloud
Written by Evangelos   
Monday, 11 May 2009

Companies that provide on-premise BI solutions, like Business Objects, Microstrategy etc. connect to data warehouses that are built on top of third-party databases like Oracle, DB2, SQLServer, PostgressSQL and MySQL.  These database management systems, as well as data warehouse engines such as Teradata’s, provide the functionality and utilities for the creation, access, and management of a data warehouse or data mart.  The current generation of on-demand BI solutions like those offered by Pivotlink, Lucidera and Birst depart from this model by integrating a query application with a database management system both of which reside in the cloud.  More recently, data warehouse appliance vendors such as Aster Data, and Vertica started offering cloud-based options of their appliances.  Through these options they allow companies to develop data warehouses and data marts completely in the cloud and access them via on-premise or on-demand query applications. 

Cloud-based BI solutions that integrate a query application with a data mart are not entirely new.  Data marts containing web analytics data have been offered almost exclusively as cloud-based solutions by companies like Omniture and Google.  Corporations using these SaaS solutions are storing increasingly more complex and mission-critical data in these data marts, including customer data. Should on-demand BI vendors continue offering solutions that integrate the query application with their own data management system, or should they start partnering with the vendors that offer cloud-based data management systems which can be used to be standalone data warehouses in the cloud?  The answer to this question depends on your point of view regarding on-demand BI and data warehousing.  I’ll consider three perspectives: the on-demand BI solution vendor’s, the end user’s, and the IT user’s.

 The On-Demand BI Solution Vendor

For the on-demand BI solution vendor this is not an easy question to answer.  Having full control of both the application layer and the database layer offers its advantages but also has drawbacks.  The major advantage comes from the vendor’s ability to better control how data is loaded to the data warehouse, how it is organized and how it is queried. 

The ability to load data quickly allows the vendor to work with larger data sets during smaller time windows as dictated by the customer, as well as service more customers at any one time.  While smaller companies may only refresh the data in their data mart weekly, larger customers typically refresh data daily.  Moreover, the transactional database of such larger customers can only stay offline for short time periods during which data must be transferred to the data marts.  For example, a retailer may only provide a 3-4 hour window daily during which sales data can be uploaded to a data mart.  If such an operation has to be performed for hundreds of the SaaS BI vendor’s customers, then one can appreciate the importance of fast data loading. 

Data loaded in the data warehouse has to be organized in the best possible way to enable the optimal execution of queries.  The managers of on-premise data warehouses and marts constantly look at the queries executed against their databases to determine how to best organize the data to achieve best query execution times.  Some of these optimizations can be performed automatically by the database management system but most require manual intervention.  Having full control of the database management system enables the SaaS BI vendor to better optimize the organization of the stored data.

Finally, the expressiveness of the language used to query the data mart determines the range of analyses that can be performed and reports that can be created by the BI application, and also contributes to the speed with which queries are executed.  Even though SQL is a standard all database management vendors implement their own extensions, including several that are specific to data warehousing, in order to add to the language’s expressiveness.

Creating a strong database management system to support data warehouses and data marts for a variety of analytical applications is hard.  The areas mentioned above such as data loading, query optimization, query management, etc. are difficult to address and require specialized knowledge.  As many database management vendors have shown over the years (from Teradata to Red Brick, Netezza and Aster Data) good database implementations require significant R&D investments.  By decoupling the database from the application, the on-demand BI vendor will be able to focus on improving the application’s functionality without having to worry about the underlying database system.  However, despite the higher investment necessary, I think that in the short term (at least the next 2-3 years) it will be difficult for on-demand BI vendors to decouple their applications from the databases and go with a third-party offering.  In order to provide strong ROI to their customers, on-demand BI vendors will need full control of the stack as they learn about the application areas where on-demand BI will provide a strong alternative to its on-premise equivalent. 

The End User

An end user subscribes to on-demand BI applications either because his organization doesn’t have an in-house BI solution and developing such a solution internally is deemed as too expensive and requiring too much time, or it does but the solution is hard to access.  Such a user doesn’t care whether the data is stored in the cloud-based data warehouse of the vendor who provides the on-demand solution, or in a third-party’s cloud-based data warehouse.

The end user cares about convenience and analysis effectiveness.  “Convenience” means that the end user would prefer an on-demand vendor that provides a one-stop to BI.  “Effectiveness” means that the user is interested in quickly analyzing data to achieve a specific goal, e.g., determining which merchandize to discount in which regions and for what time period.  During the analysis task the user is concerned about securely loading the right data to the data warehouse, quickly and easily interacting with that data to produce the desired results and reports, and keeping the data stored safely for as long as it’s necessary. 

The on-demand BI solutions available to date have been developed with such a user in mind.

The IT User

The IT user has only recently started entering the conversation around on-demand BI solutions.  This is happening as more of the larger companies that actually have IT organizations have started using SaaS BI solutions in conjunction with (or some times instead of) their on-premise ones.  IT organizations worry about the security of the data that moves from their companies’ internal databases to the on-demand vendor’s data warehouse, the integrity of the data sent to the vendor, since they must guarantee that the data stored in a company’s internal databases is always synchronized with the corporate data stored in SaaS vendor’s data warehouse, and their ability to take back the data when the need arises.   

IT must feel confident that the on-demand BI vendor uses the strongest possible security measures to safeguard the data in the warehouse.  The SaaS vendor is expected to perform at a higher standard than the IT organization itself when it comes to security.  CIOs are starting to fear that as SaaS vendors become better established with growing client rosters that include prominent corporations, they will become prime targets for hackers (individuals or groups, independent or government-sponsored), who would want to exploit the existence of large databases with prized corporate data in a single place.

Today every on-demand BI vendor requires that they be provided either with behind the firewall access to corporate databases so that they can extract data as necessary, or with the appropriate data sets to load into their cloud-based data warehouse.  Most corporations provide the SaaS vendors with data extracts because it’s safer than giving them access to the corporate databases.  However, this approach, while safer, results in multiple copies of the corporate data.  Keeping this data updated and synchronized, so that the analyses resulting from the extracts can be impactful, can become a hard and expensive task that further taxes IT resources. 

Finally, IT must ensure that the corporate data will not become hostage of the on-demand BI vendor.  To this end, the vendor must make it easy for the customer to take back its entire data set either because of deciding to switch on-demand BI vendors, or because the vendor is going out of business.  An approach to addressing this problem may be provided by Cloudkick.  In addition, the on-demand BI vendor must make it easy for the customer to obtain subsets of the data stored in the cloud-based data mart to use it with other applications.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of IT users would prefer a cloud-based BI application that accesses data stored behind the corporate firewall and doesn’t move the data permanently to the cloud.

The growing success of on-demand BI applications will lead to a lively dialog among these three constituencies on how such applications should be partitioned among the various types of cloud-based vendors and the clients themselves.



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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 19 May 2009 )
 
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